Lebanese general elections 2022, a new hope or a false one?

By Hani Bathish

 

I balk whenever I hear my countrymen and women and others in our region describe the Shiite community in Lebanon (a full third of our population) as Iranians. It’s as if by saying so we give license to any future genocidal campaign against this community. After all if it is true they are Iranians, then they are either foreign occupiers or else traitors who are working with foreign occupiers. This blanket accusation, which is always implied, is rarely spoken of in clear terms except in closed discussion groups, or it was at least.


 

But this oft repeated accusation is nonetheless dangerous and threatens our civil peace and lays the ground work for a future civil war. And herein lie the roots of our modern Lebanese tragedy: We have a system that requires equal distribution of cabinet posts among all of Lebanon’s leading sects, smaller minorities get one cabinet post for the lot. In parliament, our constitution delineates the distribution of seats 50/50 between Muslims and Christians. The general election in March or May will likely produce a parliament that is largely unchanged vis a vis Shiite representation. The majority Shiite vote will in all likelihood still go to the inseparable Hezbollah/Amal duo. Which means that any new government formed from this new parliament will have to include Shiite ministers drawn from the parties that hold the majority of Shiite votes. Doing anything else will likely raise questions of any future government’s constitutionality.

 

What this means is that even if Christian and Sunni and Druze voters chose opposition parties or newly formed parties that are part of the “forces for change” movement affiliated with the “Thawra”, the Shiite voice will likely remain firmly with the “Duo” that they see as giving them “power and dignity”. Unless there is a secret Shiite party out there that mirrors the Future Movement for the Sunnis, and that plans to challenge Hezbollah and Amal in the coming elections, a party we don’t know of and have ever heard of, but one strong enough to take half or more of the Shiite votes in the coming election, unless that happens, Hezbollah and Amal will remain an integral part of political life in Lebanon.

 

The above statement doesn’t I imagine sit well with the Saudis who’s ambassador in Lebanon pretty much marked Hezbollah as a source of instability in the Arab world, damned and shunned by the all-powerful Gulf paymaster for all eternity. Which also means that the Arab siege of what the Arabs view as a Lebanese government controlled by Hezbollah will not end any time soon. But what is even more dangerous is that even after the much vaunted and awaited elections take place, nothing much on the Hezbollah-in-government front would have changed. This means that even after the elections and a so called “new majority” emerges and forms a new government, the constitution will still require them to have a major Shiite component in cabinet alongside Sunni, Maronite, Orthodox, Armenian, and Druze ministers. And the Shiite ministers will, logic dictates, have to be drawn from the party that has the majority Shiite vote, if these ministers are to be “representative” at all.

 

And here we come to the question Ziad Al Rahbani raised in the title of his play from the 70s, Bilnisbe la Bukra shu? What of tomorrow? 

 

I have no crystal ball and I am no professional prognosticator, that field is already overcrowded in Lebanon with charlatans of every color and creed. I on the other hand can simply say: you ain’t seen nothin’ yet! Tomorrow and the many tomorrows to come shall be bleak and devastating for Lebanon even more than the many yesterdays have been!

 

I for one am in an official mourning period for a country that sadly is waiting for the merciful doctor to switch of the life support machine it’s on right now. I’m sorry I have nothing better to say. For Persiflage and Paroxysm, this is Hani Bathish wishing you happy trails my fellow Lebanese wherever you end up going. But if you’re going, do it fast…

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