Extreme, Painful Arm-Twisting Tactics: The New Normal in Global Politics
We have all sensed something was very different. Since 2016, certainly! Instead of boring, jovial late-middle-aged men with silver crowns debating endlessly and arriving at a deal that satisfies all to some degree, but snubs none, today we see arm twisting being used as a legitimate diplomatic tactic. From dealing with his own legislature to talking trade with major economic powers, the US President has introduced a new way of doing business. And its not just him, politicians in my own country, Lebanon, long known for shady politicking and where dirty tricks are de rigueur, is resorting to much the same arm twisting technique with raised pain threshold. We are tough after all!
Trump's insistence on a border wall and the Democrat's refusal to allow it has seen a prolonged Federal government shutdown in the US. Similarly, stubbornness and steadfastness has seen months pass without the formation of a new government in Lebanon, each side holding fast to its position in so far as representation on Cabinet is concerned.
In Lebanon, we are in the terrible position of chasing a national unity government in an environment where there is none! The 30-seat Cabinet has evolved through some dark metamorphosis into a Parliament in miniature. All sides insist that that their electoral weight be reflected in the number of ministers they have in Cabinet. The trouble begins when each side places a different interpretation of that political weight. But its not really about quibbling over an extra gram here or there, our problems run much deeper. In fact, Lebanon is the entirety of the Middle East in microcosm, all the divisivness squeezed into just under 11,000 square kilometers of land area (an extra kilometer here or a kilometer less there actually makes a huge difference!) This is the Kafka-esque world of Lebanese politics, a theatrical play, a political farce with just over four million actors, a crowded stage to say the least with every citizen insisting on giving his/her ten cents worth. Whether these opinions are based on blind loyalty and tribal politics or on sound facts, is neither here nor there, the loudest voice shall be heard, until the next voice shouts louder still!
Let's move away from Lebanon for now and agree that it is at the very least a failed play and a barely functioning State, and turn now to the EU, the fast evolving nightmare that threatens a major tectonic shift to Eurasian politics. The lone wolf, Le Rus, is salivating at the border. The savvy former intelligence man, Mr. Putin, is eagerly anticipating a domino-like collapse dispersal of the European herd as its loudest sheep-dog and fierce protector, the UK, hands in its notice, with worrisome rumblings from La belle France and its right-wing populists who are joined in discordant chorus with its far left. The Gilet Jaune (have I used enough French words to prove my Lebanese credentials yet?) have persisted in pushing their agenda with extreme prejudice, certainly following Mr. Macron's folding chair act on his proposed new taxes. Appeasement only makes the aggressor more aggressive, Mr. President, or do they not teach European history in France! I mean the man looks like a school boy who is so very pleased with himself, especially standing next to his significant other, his former school teacher no less! How do they resolve arguments I wonder, does she send him to stand in the corner and think about what he's done?!
But, I'd happily take a school boy as President over a capital dunce! I actually feel sorry for the United States, I mean that, Americans are good people who genuinely deserve better. It is not a matter of which side is correct any more, the right or the left, its a matter of 'can this person function rationally', which clearly Trump can barely do at the best of times. He is certainly feeling cornered in this latest showdown 'project shutdown', or should I say 'shitdown'! The longer this lasts the more angry and impatient he will get which means the more erratic his behavior is likely to get, and all within an arm's length of the nuclear bottom, and its a big one if the exchange he had with Kim is anything to go by! So, I am worried, almost as worried as middle-aged adults were back in the 1980s I suppose, except back then we had a far restrictive news diet: the morning paper and the evening news, then some inane cop shows or sitcoms and Paul Daniels to cap off the TV crap fest. Today, my phone never stops dinging with social media updates, each one with alarming headlines or dire prognostications.
In the UK, more arm twisting tactics as government and opposition face off over Brexit with only a couple of months to go until the UK officially leaves the EU. General election, second referendum, no-deal Brexit, May's deal, each scenario adding complications at the eleventh hour when the country should be preparing for a jarring separation from mothership Europe. While if I were British I would say leave now because the people's choice has to be respected, I would also accept the fact that the UK economy would lose a sizable chunk of change no matter the deal hammered out, but, I guess that is just the price to be paid for sovereignty! The bigger loser, which is a real shame, is the EU, in fact the continent as a whole is in for some turbulent weather as its centering keel, the rational pragmatic Brits depart. They will certainly leave a huge gapping hole in EU politics, both on domestic policy front and in on the EU foreign relations front.
As for the Gulf countries aligned behind Saudi Arabia, arm twisting takes on a darker military aspect, the Gulf alliance's intervention in Yemen continues to place millions of lives at risk of starvation and disease, an entire generation of Yemeni children are suffering chronic malnutrition and a host of under diagnosed psychological disorders. In fact, this 'angry' generation of young Yemenis will likely be the future terrorist leaders that shall stalk the gilded capitals of the oil-rich States and further afield. Yemen has turned into a political and military morass and extrication from it has proved difficult. But this has not prevented Gulf capitals from posturing and making arrogant pronouncements. All the while, Russia wins one foreign relations victory after another, its news media laying it on a bit thick, courting the Arab speaking populace effectively who are now pretty much convinced their history will read thus: Umayyads, Abbasids, Mamelukes, Ottomans, Britain/France, United States, Russia/Putin... When will the turn of the Arabs come I wonder!!!
It seems that the world hasn't simply gone mad, but is continuing on its calamitous journey over the cliff edge with glee and wanton abandon, laughing hysterically all the way down.
In memoriam: Humanity RIP
Trump's insistence on a border wall and the Democrat's refusal to allow it has seen a prolonged Federal government shutdown in the US. Similarly, stubbornness and steadfastness has seen months pass without the formation of a new government in Lebanon, each side holding fast to its position in so far as representation on Cabinet is concerned.
In Lebanon, we are in the terrible position of chasing a national unity government in an environment where there is none! The 30-seat Cabinet has evolved through some dark metamorphosis into a Parliament in miniature. All sides insist that that their electoral weight be reflected in the number of ministers they have in Cabinet. The trouble begins when each side places a different interpretation of that political weight. But its not really about quibbling over an extra gram here or there, our problems run much deeper. In fact, Lebanon is the entirety of the Middle East in microcosm, all the divisivness squeezed into just under 11,000 square kilometers of land area (an extra kilometer here or a kilometer less there actually makes a huge difference!) This is the Kafka-esque world of Lebanese politics, a theatrical play, a political farce with just over four million actors, a crowded stage to say the least with every citizen insisting on giving his/her ten cents worth. Whether these opinions are based on blind loyalty and tribal politics or on sound facts, is neither here nor there, the loudest voice shall be heard, until the next voice shouts louder still!
Let's move away from Lebanon for now and agree that it is at the very least a failed play and a barely functioning State, and turn now to the EU, the fast evolving nightmare that threatens a major tectonic shift to Eurasian politics. The lone wolf, Le Rus, is salivating at the border. The savvy former intelligence man, Mr. Putin, is eagerly anticipating a domino-like collapse dispersal of the European herd as its loudest sheep-dog and fierce protector, the UK, hands in its notice, with worrisome rumblings from La belle France and its right-wing populists who are joined in discordant chorus with its far left. The Gilet Jaune (have I used enough French words to prove my Lebanese credentials yet?) have persisted in pushing their agenda with extreme prejudice, certainly following Mr. Macron's folding chair act on his proposed new taxes. Appeasement only makes the aggressor more aggressive, Mr. President, or do they not teach European history in France! I mean the man looks like a school boy who is so very pleased with himself, especially standing next to his significant other, his former school teacher no less! How do they resolve arguments I wonder, does she send him to stand in the corner and think about what he's done?!
But, I'd happily take a school boy as President over a capital dunce! I actually feel sorry for the United States, I mean that, Americans are good people who genuinely deserve better. It is not a matter of which side is correct any more, the right or the left, its a matter of 'can this person function rationally', which clearly Trump can barely do at the best of times. He is certainly feeling cornered in this latest showdown 'project shutdown', or should I say 'shitdown'! The longer this lasts the more angry and impatient he will get which means the more erratic his behavior is likely to get, and all within an arm's length of the nuclear bottom, and its a big one if the exchange he had with Kim is anything to go by! So, I am worried, almost as worried as middle-aged adults were back in the 1980s I suppose, except back then we had a far restrictive news diet: the morning paper and the evening news, then some inane cop shows or sitcoms and Paul Daniels to cap off the TV crap fest. Today, my phone never stops dinging with social media updates, each one with alarming headlines or dire prognostications.
In the UK, more arm twisting tactics as government and opposition face off over Brexit with only a couple of months to go until the UK officially leaves the EU. General election, second referendum, no-deal Brexit, May's deal, each scenario adding complications at the eleventh hour when the country should be preparing for a jarring separation from mothership Europe. While if I were British I would say leave now because the people's choice has to be respected, I would also accept the fact that the UK economy would lose a sizable chunk of change no matter the deal hammered out, but, I guess that is just the price to be paid for sovereignty! The bigger loser, which is a real shame, is the EU, in fact the continent as a whole is in for some turbulent weather as its centering keel, the rational pragmatic Brits depart. They will certainly leave a huge gapping hole in EU politics, both on domestic policy front and in on the EU foreign relations front.
As for the Gulf countries aligned behind Saudi Arabia, arm twisting takes on a darker military aspect, the Gulf alliance's intervention in Yemen continues to place millions of lives at risk of starvation and disease, an entire generation of Yemeni children are suffering chronic malnutrition and a host of under diagnosed psychological disorders. In fact, this 'angry' generation of young Yemenis will likely be the future terrorist leaders that shall stalk the gilded capitals of the oil-rich States and further afield. Yemen has turned into a political and military morass and extrication from it has proved difficult. But this has not prevented Gulf capitals from posturing and making arrogant pronouncements. All the while, Russia wins one foreign relations victory after another, its news media laying it on a bit thick, courting the Arab speaking populace effectively who are now pretty much convinced their history will read thus: Umayyads, Abbasids, Mamelukes, Ottomans, Britain/France, United States, Russia/Putin... When will the turn of the Arabs come I wonder!!!
It seems that the world hasn't simply gone mad, but is continuing on its calamitous journey over the cliff edge with glee and wanton abandon, laughing hysterically all the way down.
In memoriam: Humanity RIP
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