Kim and Trump: The Media Feast in Singapore

The Korean War never ended. The armistice signed in July 1953 means that technically, South Korea, a major Asian economic powerhouse and technology hub, is in a state of war with North Korea, a brutal, repressive, dynastic dictatorship that has an unspecified number of nuclear warheads, some capable of reaching the US heartland. Trump’s successful summit meeting with Kim is probably the single smart move of his presidency and that is saying something! The news media seems unable to swallow that, after all Trump is the Twitter president, the man who is responsible for so much stress and anxiety, the man who acts like a petulant child when someone disagrees with him, how can the media ever give him any credit?! The whole day has been devoted to nit picking every detail of the meeting, the body language, the joint US-South Korea military exercises Trump said he would stop, the praise he lavished on Kim, the invite to the White House, what will US allies Japan and South Korea have to say, it just went on and on and on.

Here’s the thing: I started the day pessimistic about this unexpected turn of events, I don’t trust either men, one is a bully with a hair trigger temper, the other is a 33-year-old narcissistic dictator who has never been anything but the center of attention. Of course, I had and still have my doubts about the future of this agreement, but I also realized how timely it all was. Trump and Kim went as far as they could go exchanging belligerent comments, put downs and thinly veiled threats with one another short of launching their missiles… Now that I’ve written that I realize how homo-erotic is sounds, but seriously, it was only inevitable that they meet in person and settle things face to face. In April, if anyone remembers, the leaders of the two Koreas met at the demilitarized zone and pledged to end the state of war that has been looming over the peninsula for over half a century. Koreans are ready for peace, their allies want peace, China and Russia both nodded their approval of this meeting, the US wants to not have to worry about policing the armistice, and peace only happens when everyone wins and it may actually happen this time.

De-nuclearization is actually beneficial for the DPRK as these weapons, their maintenance, testing and upkeep is actually taxing on a small country unable to grow enough food to feed its own people. The DPRK is also deeply economically dependent on China for almost everything and in Kim’s Korea what China wants China gets, if China wants them to get rid of nuclear weapons than Kim will get rid of them. Comparisons between Kim’s theorized downfall and the downfall of Ghaddafi or Saddam, so rife in the media, are also unrealistic and inaccurate. Both Arab dictators came to power by toppling the previous regime, both maintained a vice-like grip on power and were aging fast. Kim is like a cult leader born into the job. He isn’t just obeyed, he’s worshiped by his people. Kim is young, he didn’t start the Korean war, his grandfather did. He didn’t develop nuclear weapons, he inherited them. He is a brutal dictator, but I suspect only because it was expected of him. His survival depended on eliminating any challenge to his authority.

The agreement signed today is not just a very good foundation on which to build closer ties between the US and the DPRK, it’s an excellent basis on which both Koreas can finally build on to arrive at a comprehensive peace treaty, opening up borders, and engaging in trade and commerce. There is so much these two countries can help one another with. For one thing, South Korea will no longer be an island in the Pacific between China and Japan, it will have overland links with China. A prosperous Korean peninsula will mean the two countries on it will have fewer reasons to ever go to war with one another. Such a peace will also have positive repercussions on the Asian economy and the global economy too. Most important, the DPRK will no longer be a pariah State, sanctions will be lifted, it will get aid and relief if not private sector investments at first. The US will certainly want to incentivize the DPRK, so the more verifiable compliance the more assistance the DPRK gets, plus security guarantees, which is realpolitik-speak for regime security! How is any of this not an incentive for the DPRK to follow through with denuclearization?

I don’t know what kind of person Kim is, but my guess is he’s just a young guy who doesn’t want too many headaches to deal with. I mean, sure, nuclear brinkmanship was fun for a while, but he’s young and probably got bored with that and didn’t like where is was going. I think he’s a pragmatist who understands Trump better than most elected Western leaders. Trump is a showman, that is what his arrogance and bravado is, a show for the benefit of his base back home. Kim can relate to that, he’s been put on display in carefully choreographed propaganda pieces ever since he came to power. The two men understand each other and recognize a good deal when they see it.

Plus, without nuclear weapons the DPRK has greater military flexibility in the event it ever gets the expansionist bug some time down the line, after all, the war in Korea started when the DPRK invaded the south and in fact occupied much of the peninsula, yet another reason for Kim to follow through with the agreement. Nuclear weapons are in theory a great deterrent, unless you have to go to war and consider using them which will draw a retaliatory response, so as a means for self-preservation, nukes are actually a good way to guarantee self-destruction.

The stars have all aligned for this summit and it worked, so maybe its time to give Trump (God help me) some credit.