The Russian peacemakers

The emergence of Russia as a significant power in the Eastern Mediterranean acting as a counterweight to US regional hegemony has raised certain intriguing possibilities and revealed new paths that could lead to a final peace settlement across the board in the region. The Middle East tragedy has played out in many miserable acts, persisting through the cold war and beyond well into a new century that ought to hold great promise for justice and peace for the world. 



Twenty years after the Oslo Peace Accords were signed the region is still in flames and in worse condition than it was on the eve of the 1991 First Gulf War. The accords were not a peace treaty signed between warring sovereign States matched in strength and power, it was a treaty between the victors and the defeated. The cold war ended favorably for Israel and disastrously for Arafat's PLO, especially after he backed the wrong horse following the invasion of Kuwait by Iraqi forces. 

The accords turned the Palestinian revolution into a bunch of corrupt government officials and municipal caretakers with very little control over barely 40 percent of the West Bank and Gaza. The Accords have failed to stop Israeli settlement building as they failed to build trust between the two sides and as a result 20 years on we are still as far away from discussing burning issues as we were in 1993. Refugees in Palestinian camps all over the Arab world continue to languish with no clear end in site for their suffering, Jerusalem's Arab population is being denuded by an occupation policy that never acknowledged the status of the Arab residents of the city to begin with and who are at risk of losing their identity and residency status if they leave the city for a protracted length of time or if they work in other parts of Israel or the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority does not even have the right to give these people Palestinian passports, leaving them with Jordanian travel documents and an ambiguous status. This is the gift of Oslo, defeat turned to shame turned to homelessness turned to anger.

The continuation of the Palestinian tragedy has also given countless Arab dictatorial regimes an excuse to exist and repress their people's drive for more equitable and representative government, something that has come to define the modern Middle East in the eyes of the world.

However, Russian diplomatic victory over US President Obama has raised the profile of this slumbering eastern power in the region and, unlike its communist predecessor the USSR, Russia is in a better position ideologically to take a leadership role in Middle East peace making. Russia today, as a devout Christian Orthodox country, is a more acceptable ally for conservative Muslim societies in the region, and for conservative Arab Christian societies as well. 

Should Russia cobble together a comprehensive peace initiative and road map for the region as a whole it would find many taking notice. Such an initiative would have to tackle the crisis in Syria as well as the Palestinian problem and the troubles in Iraq. It would have to serve in the capacity of honest broker bringing together Saudi Arabia and Iran to discuss delicate but pressing matters concerning spheres of control and influence. Russia is far more equidistant than the US can ever be from Israel and the Palestinians. Make no mistake, Russian intention is not to destroy the Israeli State, but its role can serve to find a more equitable solution to that long standing problem of global significance.

One solution could be a fairer division of land between an Israeli State and a Palestinian State, another solution could be a single State outcome, Palestinians and Israeli Jews living in one secular State under the rule of law and majority rule with respect for minorities enshrined in a new all encompassing constitution. This second solution maybe next to impossible to achieve if the Zionist mindset continues to dominate Israeli society. In any new peace settlement, the refugees issue and Jerusalem would have to be discussed first and in a realistic manner but one that ensures justice is done for those who have suffered for way too long.

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