A deadly regional chess game: War by proxy in Syria and Lebanon

It was naïve for the Arab youth to think that they could create real radical political change with just good intentions, the will and courage to face water cannon and tear gas, the stamina to hold out and the support of other ordinary well meaning and open minded citizens. It’s sad to see so many still think this way. I don’t blame them, I too would love to embrace such a beautiful delusion, but the fact is once an old established order is toppled those who usually take over are the best prepared and those with the most money and resources at their disposal.

Enter the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, riding roughshod over all that was once held sacred by the secularists in that country, but most tragic of all for the rest of us in the Arab world is that the rule of the Ikhwan ended an era in which Egypt was the compass and undisputed leader of the Arab world. Today, Mursi’s Egypt follows the lead of the Wahabi Al Sauds who today command an impressive alliance of money and power, an alliance given the seal of approval by Europe and America, the two continents that ironically suffered the most from Muslim extremist terror attacks. It was always whispered but never said out loud that the Gulf States supported Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan with money on the understanding that the extremists did not interfere in the internal politics of the Gulf countries. Now we know better, at least two of those Gulf countries finance extremism not as a means to placate the jihadists but out of deeply felt conviction.

The latest diplomatic faux pas on the part of the GCC’s own ‘L'enfant terrible’ i.e. Qatar which allowed the raising of the flag of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan over what is essentially a Taliban embassy, demonstrates the extent of the Gulf’s commitment to a brand of Islam that is today in direct confrontation with the Iran/Iraq/Syria axis. To use last century terminology, the next war in the region will likely be between the Sunni allies versus the Shiite axis powers, that is if war by proxy in Syria and Lebanon does not resolve the matter satisfactorily, which I doubt that it will. I use the term axis powers only to refer to the stronger side, clearly Iran, while the allies are militarily at least still the underdogs.

While I would be the first to admit that the regime in Syria is a Stalinist throw back to a more nationally polarized Middle East, i.e. Arab vs. Zionist nationalism, and that the regime’s murderous impulse when dealing with peaceful protestors is abhorrent and even criminal, I cannot nor ever will I condone the interference of foreigners in the internal struggles of other nations.

Helping the Syrian opposition early on in the conflict would have spared Syria the radicalization of many of its anti-government forces, I believed that once, it made sense after all if you shell, rocket and bomb any civilian population long enough, hard enough, anyone is liable to get radicalized. Of course, now I know that couldn’t be further from the truth. The radicals were always poised and ready, as in Egypt, to jump in and take over once the well meaning secularists and democrats had their protests and demonstrations. Once all signs of civil government had evaporated the radicals would step in with Sharia law and sharpened swords for beheadings in tow.

The problem with the Arab masses is they were and still are far too naïve and trusting and believe that a popular revolution like a fairy tale must have a beginning, a middle, a climax and a happy ending. I bet most of those who spent nights in Tahrir Square, who celebrated giddily once Mubarak was toppled, I bet not one of them ever suspected that the spark that ignited the Arab Spring came from somewhere in the vast desert seas of the Arabian Peninsula. Of course it was a Tunisian fruit seller setting fire to himself which sparked the whole thing, with facebook and Twitter helping to mobilize millions to come down to the streets and public squares; or was it?

I now have reason to suspect that the whole Arab Spring was planned and orchestrated by a special task force, probably a think tank of military strategists, paid for handsomely with oil money, which coordinated and financed the whole rotten affair, waiting until Bush was out of the White House and a weaker less experienced President took over to put their plan in to action. First in the cross hairs: Tunis, a test case, a small country where all parameters could be measured carefully and evaluated to make the next 'popular revolt' even smoother. Second, use the secularists and the democrats until they outlive their usefulness then push them to one side, and third, once all the secular dictators are gone, use the Arab League as a united front to attack the dictatorship with the hardest shell: Syria. They reasoned that isolated and weakened Syria would soon crumble; I guess they did not reckon with unwavering Russian and Iranian support.

Like chess pieces on a giant board, Arab populations were being moved into and out of squares, one capital after the other fell to the unstoppable momentum of passionate, euphoric young people determined to take control of their government and their country from military backed strongmen. On one side in the game, the GCC, on the other, Iran, an adept chess player no doubt, but whose moves were limited to a single abortive Bahraini Spring. But Iran won some key pieces for the Shiite camp early in the game, namely Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Yes, don’t be so surprised, Lebanon is firmly in the Iranian camp, it always was, and not just because Hezbollah is a key piece. Lebanon post Taif was a de facto protectorate of Syria which shaped the new country and its institutions. Today political power in Lebanon lies with the side that has most clarity with regards to its goals and mission, while the defunct March 14ers flounder in the shallows of petty local politics and disperse like a morning mist only to reappear occasionally every now and then on our screens with a lack luster pronouncement or denouncement. I fear most of our politicians would be lost in the regional high stakes political game. Somehow, Swiss-style neutrality does not seem like such a bad idea for Lebanon now!

We are, however, way past entertaining thoughts of neutrality, we are committed, we have been committed I should say to supporting one side, like it or not, Hezbollah made sure of that. The only question now is how long until the dam breaks, how long will the forces of sanity be able to keep the gunmen at bay, how long until Lebanon follows Syria into the abyss of intractable civil war. As long as the GCC continues to finance the Syrian opposition from its bottomless pit of cash and funnel weapons in, as long as GCC prisons are full of death row jihadist cannon fodder, and as long as young foolish Muslim extremists from all over the Muslim world continue to flock to Syria to do what they believe is their jihadist duty, I see no end in sight.