In Lebanon no one is in the mood for compromise or moderation

As a cat uses up the last of its nine lives, in the final seconds, it reflects upon the end, reflecting back on what was, what could have been, and how a chain of seemingly unrelated events led to its eventual demise. Similarly, as Lebanon edges closer to the brink of the abyss those prone to reflection and deep thought, few as we are over here, will look back. We will look back on all the missed opportunities, all the useless side skirmishes, battles and petty enmities, probably asking ourselves why we ever decided to declare war on ourselves in the first place. Standing muzzle to muzzle on street corners and on rooftops ever eager to pull the trigger and end what peace we still have, I wonder if the young crop of would-be fighters in the next round of civil strife will have time to muse or reflect at all.

No more second chances for us I’m afraid, we have spent all our stock, neither the Western nor the Eastern allies will look to Lebanon with a sympathetic eye, in fact its unlikely they will blink should we finally find ourselves the lead contenders in the Failed States Pageant. Regional powers too will neither have the will nor the capacity to step in diplomatically to defuse the situation. No more Doha or Taif accords, no more Saudi/Syrian rapprochement, all the regional powers have lined up all their tin soldiers and solidified their alliances, no one is in the mood to talk, they are all playing a zero sum game now and Lebanon is an irrelevance to them. But I suppose everyone already knew that.

Yet every passing day our complicated tangled country gets deeper down a one way street where no U-turns or compromises are possible. Today, Shaikh Assir addressed his supporters in down town Beirut, he said that the Sunnis were looked on as the ‘defeated sect’. It is strange how history tends to repeat certain patterns, if not all past events. On the eve of war in 1975, it was Imam Moussa el Sadr who’s ‘Movement of the Deprived’ (today’s Amal movement) echoed similar if not exact sentiments.

I don’t know about the rest of you out there, but I cannot accept to have a single ‘defeated sect’ in Lebanon, either we are all victorious and united or we might as well not be a country at all. Either all Lebanese stand firm, tall and proud or we might as well start carving up the country and set up independent confessional Statelets. As in 1975, there are two sides to the argument the politics may be very different, but the dynamic is the same: those who view themselves as more powerful militarily are the least likely to compromise, but they are also least likely to start a fight. Those who see themselves as the weaker side in a fight are more likely to strike first and in increasingly less predictable and more violent ways. Of course this is just an analysis of possible future events based on the psychology of the belligerents, as to what will actually happen, no one can say for sure only that it will happen sooner than we think, although I hope I’m wrong.

There is only so much anger that can be contained through mediation, a point can and will be reached when all the efforts of the well meaning and good intentioned men will fail to yank the country from the brink. It is at the brink that local power players seem to enjoy a good game of Russian roulette the most.

Instead of a Palestinian revolution transplanted from Amman to Beirut, today we have, let’s face it, the continuation of the Iranian revolution in Lebanon exported to our shores back in the mid-eighties, not that I have anything against the Iranian revolution which deposed a brutal autocrat, i.e. the US puppet Shah. In fact, I was once an ardent supporter of Hizbullah when it still focused its energies in its struggle against our common enemy: the Zionist State. But what I do object to is when Hizbullah creates such a stiflingly dictatorial political atmosphere that makes other citizens and sects feel they are creatures of a lesser god, and which labels everyone who raises objection to their actions or the actions of their allies as ‘Zionist collaborators’. I have similar objections to the Takfirees who seem to think their interpretation of Islam is the only right one and all those who do not share their extreme doctrine are Kuffar, or infidels.

In Egypt, we see the failings of a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government that is embattled and given no rest because their actions and the changes they proposed have been deemed extreme. Those who did not share the brotherhood’s views took to the streets. In fact, no peace can flourish anywhere amidst extremist dogma no matter what that dogma may be.

Sadly, today, the ranks of the moderates in Lebanon have dwindled while the ranks of the extremists on both sides have swelled. This development coupled with indecision concerning the election law and suggestions elections might be delayed for as long as ‘two years’, continued public sector employees’ strikes over unfulfilled government commitments to raise their wages, mounting inflation, and escalating conflict in Syria, all combine to create a ‘Perfect Storm’ scenario. I shudder to think what nightmare awaits us down the road. Some ask ‘Has it ever been as bad as this?’ I can say with confidence it has never been this bad.