The Levant in crisis: We are at the brink
There is so much happening now that is simply terrifying in my country and in its immediate vicinity that I thought to remain silent is best, as anything I say will always be misunderstood and misinterpreted and will only serve to lump me in with one side or the other in this political fracas. My ‘genetic fault’, I suppose, is my inability to stick with any political side if I judge that political side to be committing errors or, worse, atrocities. The question that begs to be answered I suppose is how did I survive this long in a country that values one golden rule above all others: ‘My brother and I against my cousin, and my cousin and I against the outsider’ A country where loyalty to clan, sect, and party, in that order, are absolute and unchanging, and where people who change horses once they realize their loyalties are misplaced, are judged as unreliable and inconstant.
The answer, for better or worse, is that I live in a separate reality, on a plane of existence that is far removed from the daily concerns and warped priorities of the 'natives'. I value my self-proclaimed observer status, and in practice I have cut all emotional connections with any and all local currents, if I had any to begin with, so I may not be swayed in one direction or another. This has been a very hard and lonely path to follow, but one I remain committed to.
The facts (you never get from any one local media) are as follows: There are two sides embroiled in a civil war in Syria, both sides are violent and unrelenting, one side is the State and the other is an aspirant State-in-waiting. The fact is, as far as Lebanon is concerned, any Syrian government, regardless of who wins this fight or any other fight in future, will be tempted to act as ‘big brother’ to tiny Lebanon, sometimes embracing its little brother lovingly, sometimes bullying it because its bigger and stronger and it simply can.
Although no one likes to say it or believe it, the fight in Syria is sectarian at its roots. One side says it’s the legitimate State and its opponents only armed gangs of terrorists while the other side says it’s fighting to free the Syrian people from a brutal and oppressive regime, but the truth is more unsettling. The fight is between a minority that has been in control of the State for 40 years and a majority that is fed up with the status quo. The fact is Christian and other minorities in Syria are still suspicious of the Free Syrian Army and the opposition’s intentions. The rule of any majority can very easily suppress minority rights. The fact is the FSA is overwhelmingly Sunni in character and has a fervent belief in its mission and ultimate victory, and its members have a fanatical religious zeal that is unsettling to non-Muslims and non-Sunni Muslims.
A lesson we learned the hard way in Lebanon is that people in a state of civil war will do things that they will live to regret when the guns finally fall silent. Neither side in Syria will find it very easy to live with the other in one country after the fighting stops. The likely scenarios should a peaceful solution not be found soon, include a country divided into sectarian pockets, or a division between North (Aleppo) and South (Damascus), and a mass exodus of people to their respective pockets. This is all conjecture of course; in war no outcome is certain. But, what is certain is that a little brother will invariably follow the example of his bigger brother. Now that is scary!
The kidnapping willy-nilly of Lebanese citizens in Syria because they are of a certain sect, and the reaction to these abductions in Lebanon, i.e. the counter-abduction of Syrian citizens with no proven link to the Free Syrian Army, shows how puerile the whole mess has become and how frighteningly cheap human lives are considered by both sides. The historic weakness of the Lebanese State is allowing the ‘armed wings’ of families and clans to challenge the authority of the government unopposed. The possible local scenarios are just as frightening as those for Syria, if not more so, simply because of the wide array of conflicting local political affiliations, in a country that is much smaller, and where divisions are more clearly pronounced. I do not have much hope for cooler heads prevailing, nor do I have much hope for national dialogue to proceed or for tangible results to come out of it. The fact is, the parties on the table are themselves unrelenting and holding fast to their unwavering positions, digging in behind imaginary sand bags sniping at their opponents from across the table.
The people of this country are so divided, are so lacking in focus and perseverance when it comes to instigating political change, that I have no hope they will do anything to avert disaster. When they tried to change the sectarian political system, they made so many mistakes. They neglected the grass roots and addressed the high minded intellectual instead who doesn’t need convincing. What were needed for that campaign to succeed were skilled marketeers. Examples abound of many movements that started out as grass roots movements with great promise only to fizzle out, much like the real March 14 movement that was politically aware, hopeful, courageous, it was young people coming together, coming down to the center of town, camping out, calling for the toppling of a government, achieving mass appeal, gathering substantial numbers, not to support any one side, but to call for change. And you know what; it worked, at least until the professional politicians took it over. Hope is lost for this country because our young have grown more and more disillusioned, because our political and economic elite are growing richer by the day, because our collective national temper tantrums are growing more and more violent.
People do not trust the State, they do not trust the law. I blame education, or the lack of it. We may have universities that offer high quality degrees in multiple specializations, but real education in Lebanon starts at home, on the streets, and in the neighborhood, that is where kids pick up bad habits, bad ideas that preach mistrust and hate of ‘the other’, whoever that may be.
The best of the locals will sit silently and pray quietly for peace, the worst of them will take sides and commit to violence as a way of convincing others of their point of the view, and the rest, will simply leave the country to its fate. I am committed to prayer, although my faith wavers, I still believe in the efficacy of prayer, in whatever language or faith system it is done, prayer is the one thing that does the least harm, but may serve to calm tempers, and maybe, just maybe, I am wrong, and God is listening.
The answer, for better or worse, is that I live in a separate reality, on a plane of existence that is far removed from the daily concerns and warped priorities of the 'natives'. I value my self-proclaimed observer status, and in practice I have cut all emotional connections with any and all local currents, if I had any to begin with, so I may not be swayed in one direction or another. This has been a very hard and lonely path to follow, but one I remain committed to.
The facts (you never get from any one local media) are as follows: There are two sides embroiled in a civil war in Syria, both sides are violent and unrelenting, one side is the State and the other is an aspirant State-in-waiting. The fact is, as far as Lebanon is concerned, any Syrian government, regardless of who wins this fight or any other fight in future, will be tempted to act as ‘big brother’ to tiny Lebanon, sometimes embracing its little brother lovingly, sometimes bullying it because its bigger and stronger and it simply can.
Although no one likes to say it or believe it, the fight in Syria is sectarian at its roots. One side says it’s the legitimate State and its opponents only armed gangs of terrorists while the other side says it’s fighting to free the Syrian people from a brutal and oppressive regime, but the truth is more unsettling. The fight is between a minority that has been in control of the State for 40 years and a majority that is fed up with the status quo. The fact is Christian and other minorities in Syria are still suspicious of the Free Syrian Army and the opposition’s intentions. The rule of any majority can very easily suppress minority rights. The fact is the FSA is overwhelmingly Sunni in character and has a fervent belief in its mission and ultimate victory, and its members have a fanatical religious zeal that is unsettling to non-Muslims and non-Sunni Muslims.
A lesson we learned the hard way in Lebanon is that people in a state of civil war will do things that they will live to regret when the guns finally fall silent. Neither side in Syria will find it very easy to live with the other in one country after the fighting stops. The likely scenarios should a peaceful solution not be found soon, include a country divided into sectarian pockets, or a division between North (Aleppo) and South (Damascus), and a mass exodus of people to their respective pockets. This is all conjecture of course; in war no outcome is certain. But, what is certain is that a little brother will invariably follow the example of his bigger brother. Now that is scary!
The kidnapping willy-nilly of Lebanese citizens in Syria because they are of a certain sect, and the reaction to these abductions in Lebanon, i.e. the counter-abduction of Syrian citizens with no proven link to the Free Syrian Army, shows how puerile the whole mess has become and how frighteningly cheap human lives are considered by both sides. The historic weakness of the Lebanese State is allowing the ‘armed wings’ of families and clans to challenge the authority of the government unopposed. The possible local scenarios are just as frightening as those for Syria, if not more so, simply because of the wide array of conflicting local political affiliations, in a country that is much smaller, and where divisions are more clearly pronounced. I do not have much hope for cooler heads prevailing, nor do I have much hope for national dialogue to proceed or for tangible results to come out of it. The fact is, the parties on the table are themselves unrelenting and holding fast to their unwavering positions, digging in behind imaginary sand bags sniping at their opponents from across the table.
The people of this country are so divided, are so lacking in focus and perseverance when it comes to instigating political change, that I have no hope they will do anything to avert disaster. When they tried to change the sectarian political system, they made so many mistakes. They neglected the grass roots and addressed the high minded intellectual instead who doesn’t need convincing. What were needed for that campaign to succeed were skilled marketeers. Examples abound of many movements that started out as grass roots movements with great promise only to fizzle out, much like the real March 14 movement that was politically aware, hopeful, courageous, it was young people coming together, coming down to the center of town, camping out, calling for the toppling of a government, achieving mass appeal, gathering substantial numbers, not to support any one side, but to call for change. And you know what; it worked, at least until the professional politicians took it over. Hope is lost for this country because our young have grown more and more disillusioned, because our political and economic elite are growing richer by the day, because our collective national temper tantrums are growing more and more violent.
People do not trust the State, they do not trust the law. I blame education, or the lack of it. We may have universities that offer high quality degrees in multiple specializations, but real education in Lebanon starts at home, on the streets, and in the neighborhood, that is where kids pick up bad habits, bad ideas that preach mistrust and hate of ‘the other’, whoever that may be.
The best of the locals will sit silently and pray quietly for peace, the worst of them will take sides and commit to violence as a way of convincing others of their point of the view, and the rest, will simply leave the country to its fate. I am committed to prayer, although my faith wavers, I still believe in the efficacy of prayer, in whatever language or faith system it is done, prayer is the one thing that does the least harm, but may serve to calm tempers, and maybe, just maybe, I am wrong, and God is listening.
Comments
Post a Comment