Lebanon: How soon will a ‘cold’ civil war turn hot?
All the hullabaloo, the tyre
burning, the street-to-street fighting in Tripoli’s Tebaneh and Jebel Mohsen, the
bus hijackings, and the check-point gun fights, all those who died, all those
injured, all was for naught. Apparently “sectarian tensions arising from the
15-month-old turmoil in Syria,”
is why we are where we are. It seems
that every time the Lebanese find an excuse to fight each other they always
seem to be finishing someone else’s argument.
It all boils down to this: March
14 and March 8 are the same basic political animal, neither one is better or
worse than the other.
Back in 2006, just after the
latest Israeli invasion, the March 8 camp wanted PM Fouad Siniora and his
government out, today, the March 14 camp wants PM Najib Mikati out. Both put on
the garb of reasonableness and the garb of unreasonableness interchangeably. Neither
has a national agenda, neither is justified in their recklessness. The sense of
anticipation today is palpable, everyone is expecting something really bad to
happen but no one is sure what.
Starting a fight that threatens
to tear apart a country is not a decision one takes lightly. I only hope those
making these decisions on our behalf act responsibly to preserve our national
cohesion. But we all know that those whom we elected have other ideas: They
have their own agendas to pursue and their own patrons to please.
What exactly is our gripe with
the ‘other side’? Do the Lebanese really know why they hate and loath the other
side so much? Ask any one, which ever side they are on, why they hold the
opinions they do and chances are the justifications they put forward will raise
even more questions than they answer, and the answers to those questions will
only be more self indulgent and patronizing.
Once upon a time, a prime
minister was murdered. He only wanted the Lebanese to get along, he never saw himself
are representing one sect, he was a Lebanese prime minister, not a Sunni prime
minister. After his death accusations flew mostly in one direction,
investigations were initiated; opinions and counter opinions were put forward.
Somewhere down the road from there, between the first Mikati government, Syrian
troop withdrawal from Lebanon, and an Israeli invasion in 2006, the whole
argument evolved and metamorphosed: From a desire for peace, justice, and
national unity, to a call to disarm Hezbollah completely. In local parlance, if
I am not mistaken, that is akin to emasculation.
I understood the argument back in
2008, I even believed in it. I thought it made sense. Why, in a country that is
not in a state of civil war, do we need to have an armed paramilitary force
outside the armed forces chain of command? I didn’t think nor do I think today
that Hezbollah weapons represent Shiite power and dominance over the other
Lebanese sects. I only see them as determined southerners who have suffered
repeated Israeli incursions (since 1973), who have lost loved ones to Israeli
aggression (by definition any incursion/invasion by one country in to another
is aggression), and who have been marginalized by the central government.
To those who wish to curtail what
they see as Shiite ascendancy, Hezbollah is seen as a threat, an extension of
Iran’s Islamic revolution, self righteous armed militia men who unjustly lay
claim to the moral high ground. They not only have a vast cache of rockets, but
also have the support and sympathy of the armed forces, the gratitude of the
disenfranchised and neglected southerners, and they have a really well spoken
and intelligent secretary general who could inspire his people to both unleash
war on the enemy and, with a word, he can restrain their collective tempers at
the most crucial of national junctures.
For many, the Shiite sect taking
a leadership role in the south by default, raising their heads up high, proud
of their achievements (as they should be) is a direct challenge to the other
sects. To those who see themselves as hyphenated Lebanese (Sunni, Maronite,
Druze, etc…) the evidence is clear and they will not be convinced otherwise: The
Shiites must be put in their rightful place.
There is a level of xenophobia in Lebanon that is
rarely expressed openly, but being Lebanese I hear these xenophobic rants in closed
familial circles. It’s the way other sects are referred to that sends a chill
down my spine. It is as if we are in a state of ‘cold’ civil war already and
may remain in this state for some time to come until something triggers a
meltdown and the cold war turns hot.
The problem in a country like Lebanon
is that it is made up of multiple religious communities; it is a country where
the nuances are important. Small differences become defining characteristics
and one more thing to criticize. In Lebanon, sects are in constant
competition for power and position.
Often the role of ‘Alpha sect’ is
attained by default either by virtue of a sect’s size, its wealth, or its
armament. But it is a position not much coveted by those who have held it
before, because any Alpha sect instantly becomes a target for all the other
sects who covet that position for themselves.
So, if we are really itching for
a fight, then we should fight for the right reasons, not for pride, not for
inconsequential, selfish, shallow, macho egos. If we want a fight, then we
should fight corruption, or fight our stiflingly conservative society that
devours its own young whole and spits them out as economic exiles. We should fight
the privileged few, those who control our lives, those who think they own the
country, who have bought our political leaders and bureaucrats, those who break
the law on the roads because they drive a big expensive car.
All the bickering, all that drives
the macho posturing in politics and in business, is a desire to prove who has
the bigger organ. We are witnessing a general dumbing down of the level of
public discourse and an absence of any truly objective investigative
journalism. Even the educated among us who should lead by example are following
the crowds rather than guiding them.
History books mention the period
just before World War I in Europe as a time
when political and military leaders on both sides were bereft of imagination,
vision, and any original thought on how to solve the issues that sparked the
war. It was that lack of wise leadership that pushed Europe
over the edge, pushed armies to mobilize, it was what fed feelings of mutual
loathing and hate, what made young men join up and head to the front lines and
certain death with a smile on their faces. Those who should have known better
failed the world then as our political leaders are failing us today in Lebanon. I can
only imagine what horrors will be visited upon us as a result. Again, I hope I
am wrong and all these tensions dissipate like a summer cloud leaving only blue
sky behind.
burning, the street-to-street fighting in Tripoli’s Tebaneh and Jebel Mohsen, the
bus hijackings, and the check-point gun fights, all those who died, all those
injured, all was for naught. Apparently “sectarian tensions arising from the
15-month-old turmoil in Syria,”
is why we are where we are. It seems
that every time the Lebanese find an excuse to fight each other they always
seem to be finishing someone else’s argument.
It all boils down to this: March
14 and March 8 are the same basic political animal, neither one is better or
worse than the other.
Back in 2006, just after the
latest Israeli invasion, the March 8 camp wanted PM Fouad Siniora and his
government out, today, the March 14 camp wants PM Najib Mikati out. Both put on
the garb of reasonableness and the garb of unreasonableness interchangeably. Neither
has a national agenda, neither is justified in their recklessness. The sense of
anticipation today is palpable, everyone is expecting something really bad to
happen but no one is sure what.
Starting a fight that threatens
to tear apart a country is not a decision one takes lightly. I only hope those
making these decisions on our behalf act responsibly to preserve our national
cohesion. But we all know that those whom we elected have other ideas: They
have their own agendas to pursue and their own patrons to please.
What exactly is our gripe with
the ‘other side’? Do the Lebanese really know why they hate and loath the other
side so much? Ask any one, which ever side they are on, why they hold the
opinions they do and chances are the justifications they put forward will raise
even more questions than they answer, and the answers to those questions will
only be more self indulgent and patronizing.
Once upon a time, a prime
minister was murdered. He only wanted the Lebanese to get along, he never saw himself
are representing one sect, he was a Lebanese prime minister, not a Sunni prime
minister. After his death accusations flew mostly in one direction,
investigations were initiated; opinions and counter opinions were put forward.
Somewhere down the road from there, between the first Mikati government, Syrian
troop withdrawal from Lebanon, and an Israeli invasion in 2006, the whole
argument evolved and metamorphosed: From a desire for peace, justice, and
national unity, to a call to disarm Hezbollah completely. In local parlance, if
I am not mistaken, that is akin to emasculation.
I understood the argument back in
2008, I even believed in it. I thought it made sense. Why, in a country that is
not in a state of civil war, do we need to have an armed paramilitary force
outside the armed forces chain of command? I didn’t think nor do I think today
that Hezbollah weapons represent Shiite power and dominance over the other
Lebanese sects. I only see them as determined southerners who have suffered
repeated Israeli incursions (since 1973), who have lost loved ones to Israeli
aggression (by definition any incursion/invasion by one country in to another
is aggression), and who have been marginalized by the central government.
To those who wish to curtail what
they see as Shiite ascendancy, Hezbollah is seen as a threat, an extension of
Iran’s Islamic revolution, self righteous armed militia men who unjustly lay
claim to the moral high ground. They not only have a vast cache of rockets, but
also have the support and sympathy of the armed forces, the gratitude of the
disenfranchised and neglected southerners, and they have a really well spoken
and intelligent secretary general who could inspire his people to both unleash
war on the enemy and, with a word, he can restrain their collective tempers at
the most crucial of national junctures.
For many, the Shiite sect taking
a leadership role in the south by default, raising their heads up high, proud
of their achievements (as they should be) is a direct challenge to the other
sects. To those who see themselves as hyphenated Lebanese (Sunni, Maronite,
Druze, etc…) the evidence is clear and they will not be convinced otherwise: The
Shiites must be put in their rightful place.
There is a level of xenophobia in Lebanon that is
rarely expressed openly, but being Lebanese I hear these xenophobic rants in closed
familial circles. It’s the way other sects are referred to that sends a chill
down my spine. It is as if we are in a state of ‘cold’ civil war already and
may remain in this state for some time to come until something triggers a
meltdown and the cold war turns hot.
The problem in a country like Lebanon
is that it is made up of multiple religious communities; it is a country where
the nuances are important. Small differences become defining characteristics
and one more thing to criticize. In Lebanon, sects are in constant
competition for power and position.
Often the role of ‘Alpha sect’ is
attained by default either by virtue of a sect’s size, its wealth, or its
armament. But it is a position not much coveted by those who have held it
before, because any Alpha sect instantly becomes a target for all the other
sects who covet that position for themselves.
So, if we are really itching for
a fight, then we should fight for the right reasons, not for pride, not for
inconsequential, selfish, shallow, macho egos. If we want a fight, then we
should fight corruption, or fight our stiflingly conservative society that
devours its own young whole and spits them out as economic exiles. We should fight
the privileged few, those who control our lives, those who think they own the
country, who have bought our political leaders and bureaucrats, those who break
the law on the roads because they drive a big expensive car.
All the bickering, all that drives
the macho posturing in politics and in business, is a desire to prove who has
the bigger organ. We are witnessing a general dumbing down of the level of
public discourse and an absence of any truly objective investigative
journalism. Even the educated among us who should lead by example are following
the crowds rather than guiding them.
History books mention the period
just before World War I in Europe as a time
when political and military leaders on both sides were bereft of imagination,
vision, and any original thought on how to solve the issues that sparked the
war. It was that lack of wise leadership that pushed Europe
over the edge, pushed armies to mobilize, it was what fed feelings of mutual
loathing and hate, what made young men join up and head to the front lines and
certain death with a smile on their faces. Those who should have known better
failed the world then as our political leaders are failing us today in Lebanon. I can
only imagine what horrors will be visited upon us as a result. Again, I hope I
am wrong and all these tensions dissipate like a summer cloud leaving only blue
sky behind.
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