The Glorious Economy
Four leaf clovers do bloom in Lebanon
An opinion with suggestions and some analysis by Hani M Bathish
Talking to friends in the Gulf recently, I began to piece together the complete depressing picture of what is actually going on over there, on the job front at least. I had always kicked myself ever so slightly for allowing my big mouth to get me into hot water with the powers that be over there, culminating in my departure from a very cushy job, all on a point of principle.
Today, the tables seem to have turned ever so slightly. If what a dear and close friend of mine said to me over Skype the other day is anything to go by, then the vast majority of my friends and former colleagues in Dubai that lost their jobs are facing great difficulty finding new ones. With most people still paying off huge debts and interest on debts they accumulated during Dubai’s ‘good life’ phase, I suspect the local courts will be kept quiet busy and debtors prisons will be filling up fast.
“It’s not the Dubai you remember,” my friend told me. Indeed not. He too has been looking for work for five- going on- six months now and nothing, not even crumbs are left. The well seems dry, well, not the oil wells, but the job well certainly, at least in the communications and PR industry. He gave me several examples of fellow journos turned PR-men who are in the same pickle barrel, so to speak, and there doesn’t seem to be real tangible hope in sight.
This sudden realization of ‘how good we have it’ over here made me feel rather grateful. We are luckier than we think in this country. We have opportunities aplenty. As long as the political set stop playing with fire and serving the interests of external patrons, we will be fine. We are really hot property and we barely know it.
Lebanon is a high risk emerging market, this means the returns (to out weigh the risks) are way better than they are in more stable developed countries, many of whom are going through their own economic crises. Our potential for growth is phenomenal; we have an industrious, young, highly educated, and resourceful population. The tough Gulf job market means the brain drain could be reversed to some degree.
Our bank vaults are bursting with cash. Banks are desperate to lend. The relatively high rates they pay out on deposits means they have to put all that cash to work in some way to earn enough interest.
Another friend of mine, a Brit working in Morocco, called me the other day asking me what rates local banks are paying because he wanted to earn some decent returns on his savings and European banks are paying dismal returns. Its not just Lebanese expat depositors that are flocking to Lebanon, foreigners are also beginning to eye local banks for the attractive returns they pay out.
There is a simple and straight forward formula to putting money to work. Lebanon has always been a short term investment country: For example: You come, build residential apartments, sell them and make a nice profit that you quickly put in the bank or entrust to some investment fund. Lebanon has never been the place for long term investments, that kind of investment requires a stable environment and a slightly lower risk profile, ideally.
But, this need not remain the case for long. Stability in our country can be achieved by first giving labor its due, making sure to release the steam valve every now and then, supporting the lowest rung of our social ladder, the poorest of the poor. After all, disgruntle masses do not a safe and stable country make!
Furthermore, our national infrastructure needs desperately to be overhauled. This is a massive undertaking, which will tax the treasury, but it will also generate employment and put hundreds of contractors to work, businesses that in turn pay taxes and support countless families in this country.
We really need to stop poking our noses in other people’s business. Lebanon needs to refocus its efforts inwards on developing the country’s investment profile, encouraging real foreign direct investment that will generate long term returns. Already, we have one regional investor, Majid Al Futtaim, investing heavily in Lebanon and he’s here for the long haul. In fact, MAF is the largest investor in Lebanon, with shopping malls planned and under construction and a major stake in the development of the Waterfront City in Dbayeh. This is a good sign, but it should only be the start.
We don’t need an overland border to export our produce. Believe it or not, by focusing on high quality, organic produce and value added processed artisanal foods we can charge more for our goods in high end European markets and thus justify the higher cost of air freight. We barely compete as it is with larger regional countries when it comes to exporting unprocessed produce in bulk. We need to specialize. Building an all cargo airport in the Bekaa (around the Rayak airbase) and food processing plants around it makes the most sense, that is unless some parties wish to use the impoverished Bekaa as a launch platform for rockets instead!
This is just one example of how Lebanon and the Lebanese can not only bring back the glory days of the 1960s and 70s, but exceed everyone’s expectations of the kind of turn around possible in this small, bitterly divided country.
We are at the launch platform and the countdown has started, which way we steer our rocket of state is up to us, we can take it down the route of civil strife, or down the route of economic prosperity, growth, and higher living standards. We don’t have a dictator to topple, we are lucky in that at least; rather, we have our own sheer bloody mindedness to overcome. We need to recognize that we all need to make concessions to each other if we are to reap the potential rewards.
An opinion with suggestions and some analysis by Hani M Bathish
Talking to friends in the Gulf recently, I began to piece together the complete depressing picture of what is actually going on over there, on the job front at least. I had always kicked myself ever so slightly for allowing my big mouth to get me into hot water with the powers that be over there, culminating in my departure from a very cushy job, all on a point of principle.
Today, the tables seem to have turned ever so slightly. If what a dear and close friend of mine said to me over Skype the other day is anything to go by, then the vast majority of my friends and former colleagues in Dubai that lost their jobs are facing great difficulty finding new ones. With most people still paying off huge debts and interest on debts they accumulated during Dubai’s ‘good life’ phase, I suspect the local courts will be kept quiet busy and debtors prisons will be filling up fast.
“It’s not the Dubai you remember,” my friend told me. Indeed not. He too has been looking for work for five- going on- six months now and nothing, not even crumbs are left. The well seems dry, well, not the oil wells, but the job well certainly, at least in the communications and PR industry. He gave me several examples of fellow journos turned PR-men who are in the same pickle barrel, so to speak, and there doesn’t seem to be real tangible hope in sight.
This sudden realization of ‘how good we have it’ over here made me feel rather grateful. We are luckier than we think in this country. We have opportunities aplenty. As long as the political set stop playing with fire and serving the interests of external patrons, we will be fine. We are really hot property and we barely know it.Lebanon is a high risk emerging market, this means the returns (to out weigh the risks) are way better than they are in more stable developed countries, many of whom are going through their own economic crises. Our potential for growth is phenomenal; we have an industrious, young, highly educated, and resourceful population. The tough Gulf job market means the brain drain could be reversed to some degree.
Our bank vaults are bursting with cash. Banks are desperate to lend. The relatively high rates they pay out on deposits means they have to put all that cash to work in some way to earn enough interest.
Another friend of mine, a Brit working in Morocco, called me the other day asking me what rates local banks are paying because he wanted to earn some decent returns on his savings and European banks are paying dismal returns. Its not just Lebanese expat depositors that are flocking to Lebanon, foreigners are also beginning to eye local banks for the attractive returns they pay out.
There is a simple and straight forward formula to putting money to work. Lebanon has always been a short term investment country: For example: You come, build residential apartments, sell them and make a nice profit that you quickly put in the bank or entrust to some investment fund. Lebanon has never been the place for long term investments, that kind of investment requires a stable environment and a slightly lower risk profile, ideally.
But, this need not remain the case for long. Stability in our country can be achieved by first giving labor its due, making sure to release the steam valve every now and then, supporting the lowest rung of our social ladder, the poorest of the poor. After all, disgruntle masses do not a safe and stable country make!
Furthermore, our national infrastructure needs desperately to be overhauled. This is a massive undertaking, which will tax the treasury, but it will also generate employment and put hundreds of contractors to work, businesses that in turn pay taxes and support countless families in this country.
We really need to stop poking our noses in other people’s business. Lebanon needs to refocus its efforts inwards on developing the country’s investment profile, encouraging real foreign direct investment that will generate long term returns. Already, we have one regional investor, Majid Al Futtaim, investing heavily in Lebanon and he’s here for the long haul. In fact, MAF is the largest investor in Lebanon, with shopping malls planned and under construction and a major stake in the development of the Waterfront City in Dbayeh. This is a good sign, but it should only be the start.
We don’t need an overland border to export our produce. Believe it or not, by focusing on high quality, organic produce and value added processed artisanal foods we can charge more for our goods in high end European markets and thus justify the higher cost of air freight. We barely compete as it is with larger regional countries when it comes to exporting unprocessed produce in bulk. We need to specialize. Building an all cargo airport in the Bekaa (around the Rayak airbase) and food processing plants around it makes the most sense, that is unless some parties wish to use the impoverished Bekaa as a launch platform for rockets instead!
This is just one example of how Lebanon and the Lebanese can not only bring back the glory days of the 1960s and 70s, but exceed everyone’s expectations of the kind of turn around possible in this small, bitterly divided country.
We are at the launch platform and the countdown has started, which way we steer our rocket of state is up to us, we can take it down the route of civil strife, or down the route of economic prosperity, growth, and higher living standards. We don’t have a dictator to topple, we are lucky in that at least; rather, we have our own sheer bloody mindedness to overcome. We need to recognize that we all need to make concessions to each other if we are to reap the potential rewards.
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