A Not So Rosy Picture

Joshua Landis, American professor and writer, paints a dire picture of a post Assad Syria, he describes a country plunged in to turmoil and civil strife, divided along geographic and sectarian lines. What is even more worrying is the warning issued last Thursday night on Marcel Ghanem’s popular TV talk show by seasoned Lebanese politician Karim Pakradouni, who said that the fall of the regime in Syria could lead to civil war in Lebanon.

I tend to heed the warnings of the pessimists because our dystopian world often proves them right. The trickle of Syrian civilians into Lebanon that is fast turning into a steady stream is of great concern if only because no one knows how long their stay will be. Their displacement could last for years. Crossing over into Lebanon just today civilians tell of more violence and more insecurity. One old Syrian woman interviewed on LBC as she crossed into Lebanon responded thus to being asked how the situation was across the border: "Zift, zift, zift."

Landis, in an article published on the Eurasia Review website, does not believe Syria to be an exception, immune from being torn to shreds by sectarian divisions, contrary to the incessant reassurances from Syrians themselves who take great pains to reassure everyone that Syria is not like Lebanon or Iraq. I seem to remember a time in 2003 when many Iraqis believed their country was immune, was not like Lebanon that it would not descend into sectarian infighting with Saddam’s fall. Déjà vu?

The fact that Syria and Lebanon are so deeply intertwined both politically and economically does not bode well for continued stability in Lebanon if the situation in Syria is not brought under control soon. Our only overland route for much of our exports is through Syria, the prospect of further deterioration on the Syrian scene must and should send shivers through the business community in Lebanon.

So many Lebanese optimists never miss a chance to tell me how robust Lebanon has proved to be in the face of Arab revolutions erupting all around us and how wrong I am when I slam my compatriots, our weak ineffectual government, our penchant for disorder and lack of national cohesion. The realist in me is bursting to tell them how wrong they are, yet the patriot in me hopes I am wrong.

How many times in our history did we fight over purely internal matters, over differences on policy, on how we should govern ourselves or manage our affairs? In reality: zero times! We have always fought other people’s battles on our land and we continue to itch for a fight!

I have never been as afraid for my country’s future, its continued stability and security as I am at this moment. There are so many needs that are unaddressed, so many people that live far below the poverty line so many urgent public and developmental projects are pending and no one knows when we will have a new government, so our immunity is already compromised.

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