The Lessons of Revolution: Libya and Beyond
There was never any doubt from the start, from the first contact Libyan rebels had with Western governments to the day the first French jets appeared in the skies over Ben Ghazi, that the allies had most definitely taken sides. From the day the French President received a delegation of Libyan rebels and recognized them as the legitimate representatives of the Libyan people, there was never any doubt of what those jets were sent over there to do, and it was not and never was going to be limited to just imposing a no-fly-zone. They were sent to offer vital combat air support to rebel ground forces.
In fact many wondered if the pilots flying the missions were coordinating their strikes and target packages with Libyan rebel spotters on the ground. That would certainly be a first, but there is nothing to suggest that is the case, certainly there is no overt mechanism in place. So, it was surprising to me when I began to hear so many voices out there decrying what US, European and indeed some Arab air forces and navies were doing in Libya.
You see, I’ve suspected this for some time, western governments are real suckers, or rather have a soft spot for loud, angry, rough-mannered, gun-totting rebels who cry freedom. Its probably the same reason a middle aged father of five wears a baseball cap back to front on weekends, or why a corporate drone in his 40s buys a Harley, or a Ferrari, it reminds them of younger days, of their lost youth, when they too were rebels.
Modern France and the United States both were themselves the products of kindred revolutions and share similar if not identical values of freedom, liberty, equality, and fraternity. When they see a people rising up from behind the iron curtain of the cruelest Arab dictatorships run by despicable monsters who daily lie to their people’s faces without shame, they can’t help themselves, they have to act, or maybe its just the oil and gas they want.
It was the same story in Soviet occupied Afghanistan, when the US funneled arms to Afghan Mujahideen. At the time the Soviet evil was the greatest evil and no one had heard of Bin Laden. But those bearded freedom fighters, it turns out, where not eastern incarnations of freedom loving frontier worriers, or latter day ‘minute men’ of revolutionary war fame. No, they had and have very different ideas about freedom, human rights, and indeed, women’s rights. Is the West making the same mistake in Libya today? The answer to that question, or rather, the lack of an answer, is the best argument for not getting too deeply involved in Libya.
But how can the world not get involved after what Ghaddafi and his son threatened to do to their own people, after the brutal suppression of protestors, the siege of towns and cities loyal to rebels, after using tanks and posting snipers in city centers to hunt down hungry and thirsty civilians the moment they step out of their homes.
I am and will always be on the side of freedom-loving rebels opposing dictatorial regimes. But on reflection, I see that we all need to take a step back and ask ourselves: are we in fact forcing change that should never have happened this fast? Is the change being imposed by the highly fluid nature of mobile desert warfare, that is creating a new military reality on the ground, is it a healthy thing? Will the victorious rebels be any better than Ghaddafi and his regime were? Only time will tell.
We also should ask ourselves what will fill the vacuum when Ghaddafi is gone. All I see are young, determined Libyan rebels without uniforms, in battered pick up trucks, completely driven by a blind anger against Ghaddafi, lacking any military skills, lacking coherent leadership as far as I can tell, completely oblivious of the challenges they will face once the dust of battle settles and the fighting stops. Will they continue to work together on the tougher job of rebuilding Libya and all the institutions it will need but never had? Or, will brothers in arms turn against one another as happened in Afghanistan? Will the country descend into further chaos and tribal conflict? That is always a risk.
Only this overwhelming movement, this force of nature so long suppressed, this infectious revolutionary tidal wave that has swamped us all, has shown us all how truly very different one Arab country is from another. In one country, popular anger sees the army taking the side of the protestors and the president stepping down, in another, a president takes of his jacket and tie and roles up his sleeves to show how close to the people he really is, while stubbornly clinging to power and ignoring his people’s wishes.
In the Gulf, Bahrain’s Shiite majority had always been seen by its neighbors as a powder keg and possible threat to regional stability. The Bahraini government, instead of embracing the opposition and working with them to arrive at a compromise, they bring in Gulf military forces and tear down Pearl round about and build an intersection in its place, hoping people will just forget.
But from every revolution, even those that fail or get derailed momentarily, we learn and we adapt and we realize that time really only moves in one direction, and there is no going back, no matter how much we wish we could.
In fact many wondered if the pilots flying the missions were coordinating their strikes and target packages with Libyan rebel spotters on the ground. That would certainly be a first, but there is nothing to suggest that is the case, certainly there is no overt mechanism in place. So, it was surprising to me when I began to hear so many voices out there decrying what US, European and indeed some Arab air forces and navies were doing in Libya.
You see, I’ve suspected this for some time, western governments are real suckers, or rather have a soft spot for loud, angry, rough-mannered, gun-totting rebels who cry freedom. Its probably the same reason a middle aged father of five wears a baseball cap back to front on weekends, or why a corporate drone in his 40s buys a Harley, or a Ferrari, it reminds them of younger days, of their lost youth, when they too were rebels.
Modern France and the United States both were themselves the products of kindred revolutions and share similar if not identical values of freedom, liberty, equality, and fraternity. When they see a people rising up from behind the iron curtain of the cruelest Arab dictatorships run by despicable monsters who daily lie to their people’s faces without shame, they can’t help themselves, they have to act, or maybe its just the oil and gas they want.
It was the same story in Soviet occupied Afghanistan, when the US funneled arms to Afghan Mujahideen. At the time the Soviet evil was the greatest evil and no one had heard of Bin Laden. But those bearded freedom fighters, it turns out, where not eastern incarnations of freedom loving frontier worriers, or latter day ‘minute men’ of revolutionary war fame. No, they had and have very different ideas about freedom, human rights, and indeed, women’s rights. Is the West making the same mistake in Libya today? The answer to that question, or rather, the lack of an answer, is the best argument for not getting too deeply involved in Libya.
But how can the world not get involved after what Ghaddafi and his son threatened to do to their own people, after the brutal suppression of protestors, the siege of towns and cities loyal to rebels, after using tanks and posting snipers in city centers to hunt down hungry and thirsty civilians the moment they step out of their homes.
I am and will always be on the side of freedom-loving rebels opposing dictatorial regimes. But on reflection, I see that we all need to take a step back and ask ourselves: are we in fact forcing change that should never have happened this fast? Is the change being imposed by the highly fluid nature of mobile desert warfare, that is creating a new military reality on the ground, is it a healthy thing? Will the victorious rebels be any better than Ghaddafi and his regime were? Only time will tell.
We also should ask ourselves what will fill the vacuum when Ghaddafi is gone. All I see are young, determined Libyan rebels without uniforms, in battered pick up trucks, completely driven by a blind anger against Ghaddafi, lacking any military skills, lacking coherent leadership as far as I can tell, completely oblivious of the challenges they will face once the dust of battle settles and the fighting stops. Will they continue to work together on the tougher job of rebuilding Libya and all the institutions it will need but never had? Or, will brothers in arms turn against one another as happened in Afghanistan? Will the country descend into further chaos and tribal conflict? That is always a risk.
Only this overwhelming movement, this force of nature so long suppressed, this infectious revolutionary tidal wave that has swamped us all, has shown us all how truly very different one Arab country is from another. In one country, popular anger sees the army taking the side of the protestors and the president stepping down, in another, a president takes of his jacket and tie and roles up his sleeves to show how close to the people he really is, while stubbornly clinging to power and ignoring his people’s wishes.
In the Gulf, Bahrain’s Shiite majority had always been seen by its neighbors as a powder keg and possible threat to regional stability. The Bahraini government, instead of embracing the opposition and working with them to arrive at a compromise, they bring in Gulf military forces and tear down Pearl round about and build an intersection in its place, hoping people will just forget.
But from every revolution, even those that fail or get derailed momentarily, we learn and we adapt and we realize that time really only moves in one direction, and there is no going back, no matter how much we wish we could.
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