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Showing posts from March, 2013

Understanding Syria through geography

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There is good reason why modern Syria has long been a wellspring of Arab conspiracy theories, as well as hardcore Arab nationalism. It’s not in the water as some would suggest. The conspiracy is not imagined, it's very real and it’s not that hard to see. Our Arab lands have been cut up and stitched up so many times by colonial powers that the wounds have hardly had time to heal.   Today we are witnessing a neo-colonial venture that is taking advantage of internal discord in Syria . The wolves have gathered, they are arming all sides, and they are hiding behind claims of defending and helping the Syrian people. The truth is no one does anything for free. But what is most worrisome is how the conflict in Syria has brought long-buried sectarian divisions into sharp focus once again. The fact is none of the foreign powers, on which ever side they are on, want what is best for the Syrian people, they just want the spoils. The Arab Revolt of 1919 which first took Damascus ...

What next for Lebanon after Mikati's resignation?

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Will people really miss this government now it’s gone? Will they have cause to? What will happen next with a parliament approaching the end of its term, with major political opponents not talking to one another, with MPs having to go through mandatory consultations soon to choose a new government? Will the sorely needed national dialogue restart as the outgoing prime minister hoped? Will clashes in the North intensify? Will the shelling and rocketing of Lebanese border villages and towns from the Syrian side intensify or abate, and what effect will that have, is the country headed for civil war? Everyone seems to be asking these or similar questions and on this Palm Sunday people seemed to be praying just a bit harder in the hope heaven would hear their pleas. But, in fact, we have no more control over what happens next to our country than Mikati had over many of his Cabinet members. He recognized that fact early on in his premiership and he only stayed on so as not ...

Lebanon is balancing on a knife's edge

The modern States of Lebanon and Syria , carved out of a Levant peopled by majorities with a deep sense of entitlement and embattled and fearful minorities, have long fed off each other’s insecurities and weaknesses. If one sneezes the other catches pneumonia. In fact, it is concern over how each country’s vulnerabilities may be exploited by the other in any future conflict, that has shaped Lebanon ’s post civil war relationship with its domineering neighbor. A special relationship evolved framed by the Syria-Lebanon Defense and Security Agreement to ensure elements within Lebanon could never threaten its bigger neighbor and vise versa, at least that is the theory. What evolved was a close relationship that spanned politics, economics, military cooperation and diplomatic synchronicity. But it is hard today to convince a Sunni Muslim in the impoverished Northern Province of Akkar or in Sidon or in villages along the border in the Bekaa to remain neutral towards the bloody events un...